ESPE Yearbook of Paediatric Endocrinology

Brief Summary: This systematic analysis examined the prevalence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) burden from 1990 to the present, in relation to location, age, and gender, and made projections to the year 2050. It reports that the prevalence of T2D will continue to rise, with rising obesity being the primary factor.

According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), there were 537 million people with diabetes worldwide in 2021, and the cost to the global economy was 966 billion US dollars (1). This study ascertained age, gender, and location-specific rates of diabetes types in 204 countries and regions, and quantified 16 risk factors for T2D, using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors research (GBD) database.

The prevalence of diabetes was estimated to be 529 million individuals (6.1%). The prevalence is > 10% in 18 countries and 15 regions, and highest in North Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania. T2D accounts for 96% of diabetes cases, but is < 90% in Australia (86.4%) and Western Europe (89.3%). The combined impact of diabetes in 2021 was estimated to be 79.2 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with 37.8 million years of life lost (YLLs) and 41.4 million years lived with disability (YLDs). High BMI was the primary risk factor for T2D, responsible for 52.2% of the DALYs due to diabetes. By 2050, there will be 1.31 billion individuals diagnosed with diabetes. Rising obesity will account for 49.6% of this increase, and demographic changes (e.g. population size and age) for 50.6%.

These findings highlight obesity as the most significant risk factor for the increasing rates of diabetes. It is evident that an immediate action plan is required to combat obesity. Furthermore, in order to mitigate the adverse consequences of diabetes complications on the global economy and the quality of life of individuals, it is imperative to develop novel strategies that address the social and logistical obstacles that impede access to medical care and treatment.

Reference: 1. Sun H, Saeedi P, Karuranga S, Pinkepank M, Ogurtsova K, Duncan BB, Stein C, Basit A, Chan JCN, Mbanya JC, Pavkov ME, Ramachandaran A, Wild SH, James S, Herman WH, Zhang P, Bommer C, Kuo S, Boyko EJ, Magliano DJ. IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2022 Jan;183:109119. Erratum in: Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2023 Oct;204:110945.